SoCal Manufacturing Contraction Echoes National Trend in November Purchasing Managers Index
November Purchasing Managers Index Contracts for Ninth Consecutive Month as SoCal Manufacturing Jobs Decline and Vacancy Grows Along Key Logistics Corridors
Southern California manufacturing is weakening and industrial vacancy continues to rise as 2025 draws to a close.
Port exports are down 6.2% YoY, and elevated uncertainty is shaping the regional industrial market.
Photo courtesy of the Port of Los Angeles.
Managing Director of Research and Public Relations at NAI Capital Commercial
The Institute for Supply Management reported that U.S. manufacturing activity weakened again in November, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) falling 0.5 points to 48.2%, marking the ninth consecutive month in contraction territory. Declines in New Orders (-2.0 points), Employment (-2.0 points), and Backlog of Orders (-3.9 points) outweighed gains in Production and Export Orders, underscoring persistent demand-side weakness and elevated economic uncertainty tied to tariffs, trade policy, and global supply chain volatility.
While Production (+3.2 points) and Prices (58.5%) reflected some short-term operational resilience, 58% of U.S. manufacturing GDP remained in contraction, signaling broad-based softness across the sector despite limited expansion in technology, food, and machinery-related manufacturing.
Manufacturing job losses and rising industrial vacancy continue to shape Southern California’s industrial market, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (employment data, latest available, through August 2025) and regional industrial market data as of December 1, 2025.
- Los Angeles County (Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA, MSA)
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- Manufacturing employment: Down 3.6% year-over-year
- Industrial vacancy: 6.4%, up 10 bps from Q3 2025 and 40 bps from Q4 2024
- Ventura County (Oxnard, CA, MSA)
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- Manufacturing employment: Down 3.3% year-over-year
- Industrial vacancy: 3.0%, up 10 bps from Q3 2025 and 50 bps from Q4 2024
- Inland Empire (Riverside, CA, MSA)
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- Manufacturing employment: Down 2.9% year-over-year
- Industrial vacancy: 8.9%, up 10 bps from Q3 2025 and 140 bps from Q4 2024
- Orange County (Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, CA, MSA)
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- Manufacturing employment: Down 1.0% year-over-year
- Industrial vacancy: 6.0%, down 10 bps from Q3 2025 but up 120 bps from Q4 2024
Industrial Market Real Estate Implications
The regional industrial market continues to face headwinds driven by structural changes, as all four major MSAs across Southern California reported a year-over-year decline in manufacturing employment through August 2025, led by Los Angeles County’s 3.6% drop. The combination of contracting national manufacturing demand, declining regional manufacturing employment, and rising industrial vacancy rates points to continued near-term pressure on Southern California’s industrial fundamentals. Elevated uncertainty tied to tariffs, reshoring decisions, and volatile input costs continues to constrain tenant expansion and capital investment, particularly in the Inland Empire and Los Angeles County, where vacancy growth has accelerated most sharply along the primary logistics corridors serving the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach.
Latest combined figures for the two ports show that year to date as of October 2025, Inbound Loaded TEUs (imports) rose 1.6% year-over-year, while Outbound Loaded TEUs (exports) fell 6.2% over the same period, highlighting ongoing headwinds for Southern California’s trade-dependent industrial sector.
