Fourth Quarter 2025
Ventura County Industrial Sales Gain Momentum as Leasing Moderates
Rising vacancy and easing financing conditions reshaped Ventura County’s industrial market in 2025.
Sales volume increased countywide, while leasing performance varied across submarkets.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Ventura County’s industrial vacancy rate rose 50 basis points year-over-year to 3.0%. While this reflects a 17.3% annual increase in vacant space, the market remains historically tight. The uptick was driven by cooling demand for warehouse-distribution facilities and a modest increase in inventory, though new supply remains constrained, with only 185,659 square feet delivered in 2025.
Rents have shifted from rapid growth to a period of correction, declining 7.1% year-over-year to $1.04 per square foot triple net and easing just $0.02 from the prior quarter, signaling early signs of stabilization. Reflecting increased tenant leverage, sublease availability climbed to 235,236 square feet, up 12.0% quarter-over-quarter and 14.7% year-over-year.
Despite leasing activity moderating to 1.2 million square feet year-to-date, the sales market remained a bright spot. Sales volume increased 14.5% year-to-date, with 780,504 square feet traded, supported by easing financing conditions and motivated participation from both buyers and sellers.
Although e-commerce demand has stabilized from pandemic-era highs, the rise in vacancy has not translated into an oversupplied market, as few large, modern last-mile facilities have been delivered. Elevated construction costs and interest rates continue to constrain new development, keeping supply growth in check.
TRENDS TO WATCH
Vacancy is expected to continue rising but should remain relatively low due to limited speculative construction. As a result, rent and sale prices are projected to level off. While demand has softened from recent highs, businesses seeking large, modern, state-of-the-art facilities continue to face limited availability. Elevated interest rates continue to temper industrial property sales, reinforcing cautious market sentiment despite increased transaction activity.
In Central Ventura County, leasing volume declined 3.4% year-to-date compared to 2024. In contrast, sales volume increased fivefold, with 205,540 square feet sold as additional industrial product for sale entered the market. Vacancy rose to 4.1% by year-end, up 110 basis points year-over-year and the highest rate among Ventura County submarkets. North Ventura County recorded a 14.9% year-to-date decline in leasing activity, while sales volume surged 63.7% over the same period. Vacancy tightened in the submarket, falling 90 basis points year-over-year to 2.6%.
West Ventura County, the region’s largest submarket, was the only area to post a year-to-date increase in leasing volume, rising 11.3% to 631,365 square feet. Sales volume declined 41.9% year-over-year to 263,717 square feet, reflecting the submarket’s position as home to the county’s highest-priced industrial real estate.
Countywide, leasing volume decreased a modest 0.9% year-to-date, while total square footage sold increased 14.5% as of Q4 2025 compared to the prior year. Developers remain cautious as rising availability, elevated construction costs, and tighter financing conditions continue to limit new development.
For tenants evaluating industrial acquisitions, borrowing cost pressures require disciplined financial planning. While these headwinds may continue to temper transaction activity, limited inventory is expected to support average sale prices. Within a constrained construction environment, leasing remains the dominant occupancy strategy, a dynamic likely to influence warehouse and distribution pricing into early 2026.
