Fourth Quarter 2025
New Supply Reshapes Ventura County’s Multifamily Market
Vacancies are rising and rent growth is softening as development momentum fades.
Vacancy hits 4.2 percent as completions surge and sales activity jumps 310 percent.
MARKET OVERVIEW
In Q4 2025, Ventura County’s multifamily housing market reflected shifting dynamics as new supply continued to pressure fundamentals. Vacant units increased 23.0% quarter-over-quarter and rose 34.6% year-over-year to 2,565 units. Developers delivered 635 new units during the quarter, up from 490 in the prior quarter and 271 in Q4 2024. Year-to-date deliveries totaled 1,573 units, representing a 49.0% increase from the same period in 2024 and underscoring the expansion in available inventory.
These conditions were reflected in the vacancy rate, which increased 90 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 120 basis points year-over-year to 5.0%.
Average asking rents declined by $16 quarter-over-quarter and $2.00 year-over-year to $2,623 per unit, marking a modest pullback from Q2 2025’s all-time high. Despite persistent headwinds including elevated interest rates, higher construction costs, and subdued rent growth, new development activity is losing momentum. As of Q4 2024, 1,816 units were under construction, representing a 45.0% decline from the prior quarter and a 64.9% decrease year-over-year.
Sales activity in Q4 2025 presented a mixed picture. Transaction volume declined 79.9% quarter-over-quarter, while year-to-date sales volume fell 50.2% from the prior year’s elevated level to just over $334 million. The average sale price per unit decreased 16.8% quarter-over-quarter to $317,388 and declined 8.2% year-over-year. Regionwide, the total number of units sold year-to-date fell 39.9% compared to 2024. Meanwhile, the average capitalization rate increased 60 basis points year-over-year to 5.4%.
Collectively, these trends point to a market in transition, where rising inventory and easing development activity coincide with moderated rent growth, higher vacancies, and uneven investment activity.
TRENDS TO WATCH
Ventura County’s multifamily market fundamentals are expected to remain steady as the sector adjusts to economic shifts, employment trends, and persistent homeownership affordability challenges. While these factors continue to support rental demand, growth has slowed. Elevated borrowing costs have increased financial risk, yet demand remains intact for well-positioned assets, even as overall growth prospects appear more restrained.
In 2025, the market recorded just three sales of properties with more than 100 units, down from six in 2024. Conversely, sales of properties with fewer than 100 units increased, with 38 transactions completed in 2025 compared to 32 the prior year. This shift reflects investor adaptation to higher financing costs and is evident in shrinking deal sizes. The average deal size fell to $8,350,622 in 2025, a 52.7% year-over-year decline and the lowest level recorded in nine years.
Select transactions in Q4 underscored continued investor interest. In Thousand Oaks, a private individual sold Green Hill Apartments at 605 Warwick Avenue, a 36-unit multifamily property, to another private individual for $11.5 million on November 24, 2025. The property was 97% occupied at the time of sale and had been under the same ownership for more than 50 years. The transaction reflected a 2025 cap rate of 3.5%, with the seller retiring and the buyer focused on portfolio expansion.
Another notable sale occurred in Agoura Hills, where a private individual sold the 24-unit property at 5307–5315 Colodny Drive for $9.78 million. The asset was marketed for 143 days with an initial asking price of $9.80 million. In-place net operating income for 2025 totaled $566,504, translating to a realized cap rate of 5.8%.
Overall, investors are recalibrating strategies to balance elevated borrowing costs against sustained rental demand. Looking ahead, the multifamily market is expected to continue adjusting to broader economic conditions and evolving financing dynamics. As mortgage rates and home prices remain elevated, homeownership remains out of reach for many households, reinforcing long-term rental demand. However, slower rent growth is likely to temper pricing expectations as investors operate within a more selective and disciplined environment.
