Fourth Quarter 2024
Ventura County Retail Market Shows Resilience Amid Ongoing Recovery
Despite obstacles, positive leasing and sales activity in key areas signal signs of recovery and investor confidence.
Some investors turned to selling, accepting lower prices to finalize deals.
MARKET OVERVIEW
The retail market in Ventura County continues its slow recovery, now nearing the end of its fourth post-pandemic year. In Q4 2024, vacancy rates edged down to 5.6%, unchanged from the prior quarter but 20 basis points higher than Q4 2023. Leasing volume fell 43.6% quarter-over-quarter, leaving the year-to-date total at 692,895 square feet—down 19.3% from 2023 and too weak to counter the broader slowdown.
Bankruptcies in 2024 closed several prominent retail chains, but many retailers seized the opportunity to backfill these vacant spaces. This shift increased occupancy by 24,836 square feet in Q4, though it remained 188,898 square feet below Q4 2023 levels. Total vacant space dropped from its mid-2024 peak to 2.4 million square feet by year-end—a positive sign, yet still far from pre-pandemic norms.
Minimal occupancy gains led landlords to offer concessions while keeping asking rents steady. Some investors turned to selling, accepting lower prices to finalize deals. The average sale price for retail space dropped to $214 per square foot—a notable recovery from Q3’s unusually low figures, though still 9.4% below last year. Despite this, sales activity surged, with 2024 square footage sold exceeding 2.4 million square feet over 2023—the highest Q4 total since 2015. Driving the Q4 market numbers was The Oaks Mall, a 747,108-square-foot property, which sold for $157 million, or $210 per square foot. As a result, sales volume soared 245.0% quarter-over-quarter, lifting the 2024 total to approximately $475.6 million—still 31.5% below 2023’s annual figure.
Meanwhile, average asking rents for direct space rose 3 cents quarter-over-quarter and 2 cents year-over-year to $2.17 per square foot, triple net. Leasing activity softened, with 2024 year-to-date totals lagging 19.3% behind 2023.
TRENDS TO WATCH
Landlords and sublessors are likely to keep adjusting rents to boost cash flow and fill vacant spaces. West Ventura County, with 76,469 square feet of available retail space—the region’s highest—saw direct asking rents hold steady quarter-over-quarter, rising just 1 cent year-over-year to $2.11 per square foot (triple net). Demand has kept landlord rents firm, while sublessors offer competitive lease terms. The West gained 13,512 square feet of positive absorption in Q4 2024—not enough to lift the submarket into positive territory, with year-to-date net absorption still negative at 150,268 square feet. Home to Camarillo Premium Outlets, this submarket acts as a bellwether for Ventura County retail. Sublease availability climbed 16.2% quarter-over-quarter and 46.8% year-over-year, signaling brisk competition for tenants in this area.
The East submarket despite hosting Ventura County’s most prestigious retail market, posted 11,324 square feet of positive absorption in Q4 2024—still insufficient to push the annual total positive, ending at negative 38,630 square feet. This modest Q4 gain, a slight uptick from Q3, contributed to a 60-basis-point vacancy rate increase from last year, reaching 6.5%. With more high-priced retail space on the market Average asking rents for direct space rose 3.2% quarter-over-quarter and 1.8% year-over-year, closing 2024 at $2.24 per square foot, triple net.
Property owners are expected to continue offering incentives to attract tenants, though filling larger vacated spaces remains challenging. However, expanding retailers are actively pursuing well-located vacancies, particularly those available for sublease or returned to landlords following retail bankruptcies.
Retailer bankruptcies, and the evolving economic landscape, will continue to create both challenges and opportunities. Craft and sewing retailer Joann is moving toward liquidation following its second bankruptcy in less than a year. Pending court approval, all remaining locations will begin going-out-of-business sales, underscoring the difficulties brick-and-mortar retailers face in a shifting consumer landscape.
Joann’s closure affects two locations in Ventura County, totaling 37,215 square feet. With competition for prime retail space expected to remain strong, market volatility is likely to increase. Landlords, tenants, and investors will aggressively compete for well-positioned properties as the sector continues its recovery.
