Third Quarter
Ventura County Retail Market Advances Moderately in Q3 2025 Despite Lingering Economic Headwinds
Vacancy rates edge lower as leasing slows, while investor activity highlights resilience in a stabilizing landscape.
Ventura County’s retail sector continues its gradual recovery in the third quarter of 2025, with the overall vacancy rate dipping to 5.8%—a modest improvement quarter-over-quarter but still elevated year-over-year.
MARKET OVERVIEW
Ventura County’s retail market recovery continues to progress moderately. In Q3 2025, the overall vacancy rate edged slightly lower, falling 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter from 5.9% to 5.8%, though it remains 20 basis points higher than the same period last year (Q3 2024).
Market growth remains constrained by population migration tied to economic and housing affordability challenges. According to the California Department of Finance, the county’s population increased marginally from 828,183 in 2024 to 829,005 in 2025. However, several cities experienced slight declines: Camarillo and Moorpark each lost 0.8%, Thousand Oaks declined 0.7%, and Fillmore fell 0.4%, reflecting pockets of contraction. This slow growth has limited new retail development, with just 33,825 square feet under construction as of Q3—a 31.1% decline from the previous quarter and a 73.6% drop year-over-year.
Leasing activity for the quarter totaled 206,614 square feet, down 15.0% from Q2’s 242,968 square feet. Despite the decline, tenants continue to drive demand, including Spirit Halloween Superstores, which opened a seasonal 20,000-square-foot location in Ventura; Rivian, which opened a 16,134-square-foot electric vehicle dealership in Ventura; Hope the Mission, which subleased a 14,490-square-foot former Walgreens in Oxnard; and Go Green Detailing, which leased 10,820 square feet in Oxnard. Net absorption for the quarter reached 84,120 square feet, bringing the year-to-date total to 27,151 square feet. Average asking rents held steady at $2.15 per square foot per month triple net, reflecting a 5.4% increase compared to Q3 2020, during the pandemic when rents were suppressed, and rising 2 cents year-over-year. This suggests a market that has largely stabilized from the pandemic’s disruptions.
Development activity reflects caution as higher construction costs, inflation’s impact on consumer spending, elevated interest rates, and slower rent growth temper momentum. Year-to-date sales volume reached nearly $130 million, a significant 52.1% decrease compared to 2024. However, Q3 transaction volume of 322,541 square feet was more than three times that of the prior quarter. While overall volume remains low, the average deal size at $3,829,524 in Q3 was 34.6% higher quarter-over-quarter and 26.6% higher year-over-year, with the average sale price coming in at $254 per square foot. Average capitalization rates remain elevated, reflecting investor caution. Investors continue to weigh retail class quality, pricing disparities, tighter credit, and shifting fundamentals, which are driving fluctuations in transaction activity.
TRENDS TO WATCH
The fundamentals of Ventura County’s retail sector continue to shift as 2025 nears its close. Migration patterns, economic conditions, and employment trends remain key drivers of growth, though at a more moderate pace than in prior years. Unemployment in the county has trended higher throughout 2025 and now stands at 5.2%. Retail Trade sectors are underperforming, and due to the federal government shutdown, September employment figures are unavailable; the most recent data from the State of California Employment Development Department reflect August reporting. Food and Beverage Retailers lost 300 jobs, and General Merchandise Retailers shed 100 jobs between August 2024 and August 2025.
Population growth continues to influence retail supply and demand, particularly as residents shift locations in search of more attainable housing. According to the California Department of Finance, Ventura (+0.6%), Santa Paula (+0.5%), and Oxnard (+0.2%) posted the strongest population gains—modest but meaningful for long-term retail performance. New development, however, remains limited. As of Q3 2025, only 33,825 square feet of retail space were under construction across the county, down 31.1% quarter over quarter and 73.6% year over year. East Ventura County accounted for 69.8% of all space underway, while West Ventura County represented 30.2%. Nearly all new deliveries this year—86.5%—have been concentrated in the West submarket.
Vacancy growth remains subdued as retailers continue to backfill space previously vacated by bankruptcies and closures among drugstores, apparel chains, and home goods operators. Investor and owner-user sales activity reflects steady confidence in well-located assets. Gerrity Group acquired the 129,470-square-foot Conejo Valley Plaza in Thousand Oaks for $45.5 million, or $351 per square foot. Tourmaline Capital sold Mission Bell East, totaling 107,806 square feet in Moorpark, to a private buyer for $14.3 million, or $132.65 per square foot. In Ventura, Players Casino & The Patio purchased the former 25,626-square-foot Regency Buenaventura 6 theater at 1440 Eastman Avenue for $8.75 million, or $341.45 per square foot, with plans to relocate their operations to the site. These transactions underscore the ongoing interest from both investors and owner-users in Ventura County retail.
Looking ahead, rising tariff costs ultimately didn’t materialize, but broader economic uncertainty remains a key risk that could curb consumer spending and soften leasing momentum. While U.S. consumer spending has remained resilient, retailers are adopting more creative strategies to absorb additional costs and delay widespread price increases. Flexible lease structures, strategic concessions, and selective investment are supporting measured progress. Competition for prime retail space is expected to remain healthy as available options tighten, while elevated pricing for well-located assets and softer rents for secondary locations reflect both investor confidence and cautious retailer positioning during the market’s ongoing recovery.
